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Information aggregation and collective intelligence beyond the wisdom of crowds
In humans and other gregarious animals, collective decision-making is a robust behavioural
feature of groups. Pooling individual information is also fundamental for modern societies, in …
feature of groups. Pooling individual information is also fundamental for modern societies, in …
Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it
JW Scannell, J Bosley, JA Hickman… - Nature Reviews Drug …, 2022 - nature.com
Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and
biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug …
biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug …
What motivates effort? Evidence and expert forecasts
How much do different monetary and non-monetary motivators induce costly effort? Does
the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers and with results in the …
the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers and with results in the …
Megastudy shows that reminders boost vaccination but adding free rides does not
Encouraging routine COVID-19 vaccinations is likely to be a crucial policy challenge for
decades to come. To avert hundreds of thousands of unnecessary hospitalizations and …
decades to come. To avert hundreds of thousands of unnecessary hospitalizations and …
Making better use of the crowd: How crowdsourcing can advance machine learning research
JW Vaughan - Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2018 - jmlr.org
This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the landscape of crowdsourcing
research, targeted at the machine learning community. We begin with an overview of the …
research, targeted at the machine learning community. We begin with an overview of the …
Predicting experimental results: who knows what?
We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and
behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts …
behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts …
The circadian profile of epilepsy improves seizure forecasting
It is now established that epilepsy is characterized by periodic dynamics that increase
seizure likelihood at certain times of day, and which are highly patient-specific. However …
seizure likelihood at certain times of day, and which are highly patient-specific. However …
[LIBRO][B] Trusting judgements: how to get the best out of experts
MA Burgman - 2015 - books.google.com
Policy-and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …
[HTML][HTML] Expert elicitation: using the classical model to validate experts' judgments
The inclusion of expert judgments along with other forms of data in science, engineering,
and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining …
and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining …
Distilling the wisdom of crowds: Prediction markets vs. prediction polls
P Atanasov, P Rescober, E Stone… - Management …, 2017 - pubsonline.informs.org
We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 …
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 …