Information aggregation and collective intelligence beyond the wisdom of crowds

T Kameda, W Toyokawa, RS Tindale - Nature Reviews Psychology, 2022 - nature.com
In humans and other gregarious animals, collective decision-making is a robust behavioural
feature of groups. Pooling individual information is also fundamental for modern societies, in …

Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it

JW Scannell, J Bosley, JA Hickman… - Nature Reviews Drug …, 2022 - nature.com
Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and
biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug …

What motivates effort? Evidence and expert forecasts

S DellaVigna, D Pope - The Review of Economic Studies, 2018 - academic.oup.com
How much do different monetary and non-monetary motivators induce costly effort? Does
the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers and with results in the …

Megastudy shows that reminders boost vaccination but adding free rides does not

KL Milkman, SF Ellis, DM Gromet, Y Jung, AS Luscher… - Nature, 2024 - nature.com
Encouraging routine COVID-19 vaccinations is likely to be a crucial policy challenge for
decades to come. To avert hundreds of thousands of unnecessary hospitalizations and …

Making better use of the crowd: How crowdsourcing can advance machine learning research

JW Vaughan - Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2018 - jmlr.org
This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the landscape of crowdsourcing
research, targeted at the machine learning community. We begin with an overview of the …

Predicting experimental results: who knows what?

S DellaVigna, D Pope - Journal of Political Economy, 2018 - journals.uchicago.edu
We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and
behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts …

The circadian profile of epilepsy improves seizure forecasting

PJ Karoly, H Ung, DB Grayden, L Kuhlmann, K Leyde… - Brain, 2017 - academic.oup.com
It is now established that epilepsy is characterized by periodic dynamics that increase
seizure likelihood at certain times of day, and which are highly patient-specific. However …

[LIBRO][B] Trusting judgements: how to get the best out of experts

MA Burgman - 2015 - books.google.com
Policy-and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …

[HTML][HTML] Expert elicitation: using the classical model to validate experts' judgments

AR Colson, RM Cooke - Review of Environmental …, 2018 - journals.uchicago.edu
The inclusion of expert judgments along with other forms of data in science, engineering,
and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining …

Distilling the wisdom of crowds: Prediction markets vs. prediction polls

P Atanasov, P Rescober, E Stone… - Management …, 2017 - pubsonline.informs.org
We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 …