Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence

R Bems, F Caselli, F Grigoli, B Gruss - Journal of International Economics, 2021 - Elsevier
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper
provides an assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the …

Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil

GC Montes, I Souza - The North American Journal of Economics and …, 2020 - Elsevier
Abstract Since Credit Default Swaps spreads reflect the sovereign risk and, thus, the
uncertainties related to government solvency, the goal of this study is to examine the relation …

Predicting fires for policy making: Improving accuracy of fire brigade allocation in the Brazilian Amazon

TF Morello, RM Ramos, LO Anderson, N Owen… - Ecological …, 2020 - Elsevier
The positioning of federal fire brigades in the Brazilian Amazon is based on an
oversimplified prediction of fire occurrences, where inaccuracies can affect the policy's …

Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil

GC Montes, M Valladares, CO de Moraes - The Quarterly Review of …, 2021 - Elsevier
Abstract Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) provide credit information related to sovereign
bonds and play a crucial role in international financial markets. This study investigates …

Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil

GC Montes, JPN Maia - The North American Journal of Economics and …, 2023 - Elsevier
Analyzing sovereign risk measures for Brazil, we observe that credit rating agencies are
more cautious and conservative than the market to report risk rating improvements, and …

Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses

Y Zhao - Journal of Forecasting, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
We propose a procedure that jointly estimates expectation, uncertainty, and disagreement
using a flexible hierarchical ordered response model and individual‐level qualitative data …

[BOOK][B] Is inflation domestic or global? Evidence from emerging markets

MR Bems, FG Caselli, F Grigoli, B Gruss, W Lian - 2018 - books.google.com
Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging
markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this related to a global disinflation …

Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium

GC Montes, NT de Hollanda Lima - The Quarterly Review of Economics …, 2022 - Elsevier
Studies seek to identify the determinants of the inflation risk premium. Nevertheless, the
literature investigating the effects of fiscal variables on the inflation risk premium is scarce …

Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil

GC Montes, RT da Fonseca Nicolay, T Acar - Journal of Economics and …, 2019 - Elsevier
This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal communication and clarity of announcements about
fiscal policy on public debt uncertainty. Using different econometric techniques (OLS, GMM …

[BOOK][B] World economic outlook, October 2018: challenges to steady growth

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. - 2019 - books.google.com
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less
vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global …