Improving hazard map comprehension for protective action decision making

MK Lindell - Frontiers in Computer Science, 2020 - frontiersin.org
A major challenge in the communication of spatial hazard information is the existence of
substantial variation in people's ability to correctly infer the appropriate conclusions from …

[HTML][HTML] A user-centred design framework for disaster risk visualisation

A Twomlow, S Grainger, K Cieslik, JD Paul… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Visualisations are powerful communication tools that have the potential to help societies
assess and manage natural hazard and disaster risks. However, the diversity of risk …

[HTML][HTML] Width of surface rupture zone for thrust earthquakes: implications for earthquake fault zoning

P Boncio, F Liberi, M Caldarella… - Natural Hazards and …, 2018 - nhess.copernicus.org
The criteria for zoning the surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults are defined
by analysing the characteristics of the areas of coseismic surface faulting in thrust …

Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

NJ Harvey, N Huntley, HF Dacre… - … hazards and earth …, 2018 - nhess.copernicus.org
Following the disruption to European airspace caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in
2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions of volcanic ash …

Calculating and communicating ensemble‐based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation

AT Prata, HF Dacre, EA Irvine, E Mathieu… - Meteorological …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
During volcanic eruptions, aviation stakeholders require an assessment of the volcanic ash
hazard. Operators and regulators are required to make fast decisions based on deterministic …

Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon? Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

L Arnal, L Anspoks, S Manson… - Geoscience …, 2019 - gc.copernicus.org
The inclusion of uncertainty in flood forecasts is a recent, important yet challenging
endeavour. In the chaotic and far from certain world we live in, probabilistic estimates of …

The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

EM Stephens, DJ Spiegelhalter, K Mylne… - Geoscience …, 2019 - gc.copernicus.org
To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their website, the UK Met
Office ran an online game as a mass participation experiment to highlight the best methods …

Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption

NJ Harvey, HF Dacre, C Saint, AT Prata… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - acp.copernicus.org
Due to the remote location of many volcanoes, there is substantial uncertainty about the
timing, amount and vertical distribution of volcanic ash released when they erupt. One …

Map-based ensemble forecasts for maritime operations: An interactive usability assessment with decision scenarios

J Jeuring, EM Samuelsen, M Lamers… - Weather, Climate …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
Previous research indicates that forecast uncertainty can, in certain formats and decision
contexts, provide actionable insights that help users in their decision-making. However, how …

[HTML][HTML] The impact of ensemble meteorology on inverse modeling estimates of volcano emissions and ash dispersion forecasts: Grímsvötn 2011

NJ Harvey, HF Dacre, HN Webster, IA Taylor, S Khanal… - Atmosphere, 2020 - mdpi.com
Volcanic ash can interact with the earth system on many temporal and spatial scales and is
a significant hazard to aircraft. In the event of a volcanic eruption, fast and robust decisions …