5 Stochastic volatility

E Ghysels, AC Harvey, E Renault - Handbook of statistics, 1996 - Elsevier
Publisher Summary The class of stochastic volatility (SV) models has its roots in both,
mathematical finance and financial econometrics. In fact, several variations of SV models …

Volatility and correlation forecasting

TG Andersen, T Bollerslev, PF Christoffersen… - Handbook of economic …, 2006 - Elsevier
Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series
econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective …

The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas

S Chen, A Bouteska, T Sharif, MZ Abedin - Resources Policy, 2023 - Elsevier
The major aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent Russia–Ukraine war on
the volatility dynamics of the natural gas market for the 1 June 2011–31 December 2022 …

Volatility is rough

J Gatheral, T Jaisson, M Rosenbaum - Quantitative finance, 2018 - Taylor & Francis
Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the
smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially …

Volatility is (mostly) path-dependent

J Guyon, J Lekeufack - Quantitative Finance, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
We learn from data that volatility is mostly path-dependent: up to 90% of the variance of the
implied volatility of equity indexes is explained endogenously by past index returns, and up …

Modeling and forecasting realized volatility

TG Andersen, T Bollerslev, FX Diebold… - Econometrica, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
We provide a framework for integration of high–frequency intraday data into the
measurement, modeling, and forecasting of daily and lower frequency return volatilities and …

A simple approximate long-memory model of realized volatility

F Corsi - Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2009 - academic.oup.com
The paper proposes an additive cascade model of volatility components defined over
different time periods. This volatility cascade leads to a simple AR-type model in the realized …

The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility

TG Andersen, T Bollerslev, FX Diebold… - Journal of the American …, 2001 - Taylor & Francis
Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct
model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire …

Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models

OE Barndorff-Nielsen… - Journal of the Royal …, 2002 - academic.oup.com
The availability of intraday data on the prices of speculative assets means that we can use
quadratic variation-like measures of activity in financial markets, called realized volatility, to …

Roughing it up: Including jump components in the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of return volatility

TG Andersen, T Bollerslev, FX Diebold - The review of economics and …, 2007 - direct.mit.edu
A growing literature documents important gains in asset return volatility forecasting via use
of realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns. We progress by …