Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show
that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' …

As a way to coordinate the interests of multi-government and solve the problem of
transboundary water pollution, watershed ecological compensation system has been …

Innovations to consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity
far into the future. Does this reflect a causal effect of animal spirits on economic activity, or …

This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach to the identification of
news shocks about future technology. The news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal …

Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation
effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect …

This paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around
macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre‐scheduled …

We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles
driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run–and therefore does …

This article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil
and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output …

We augment a standard monetary DSGE model to include a banking sector and financial
markets. We fit the model to Euro Area and US data. We find that agency problems in …

We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of
business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984 to 2017, we …