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[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …
Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes
Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished
by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant …
by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant …
Forecasting with panel data
This paper gives a brief survey of forecasting with panel data. It begins with a simple error
component regression model and surveys the best linear unbiased prediction under various …
component regression model and surveys the best linear unbiased prediction under various …
[کتاب][B] Forecasting international migration in Europe: A Bayesian view
J Bijak - 2010 - books.google.com
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary
demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable …
demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable …
Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?
International migration can significantly increase income per capita in Europe. We estimate
that at the given wage and productivity gap between Western and Eastern Europe, migration …
that at the given wage and productivity gap between Western and Eastern Europe, migration …
Vehicle ownership analysis based on GDP per capita in China: 1963–2050
This paper presents the Gompertz function of per capita GDP and vehicle stock to forecast
the vehicle ownership of China through to 2050 against a background of increasing energy …
the vehicle ownership of China through to 2050 against a background of increasing energy …
[PDF][PDF] Forecasting international migration: Selected theories, models, and methods
J Bijak - 2006 - cefmr.pan.pl
The paper attempts to outline selected theoretical fundamentals of international migration
forecasting. In general, socio-economic predictions can be based either on general laws …
forecasting. In general, socio-economic predictions can be based either on general laws …
A gravity model of migration between the ENC and the EU
Due to its ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to
import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries …
import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries …
Bayesian probabilistic projection of international migration
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all
countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to …
countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to …
Pooling in tourism demand forecasting
This study investigates whether pooling can improve the forecasting performance of tourism
demand models. The short-term domestic tourism demand forecasts for 341 cities in China …
demand models. The short-term domestic tourism demand forecasts for 341 cities in China …