To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound
on short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other advanced …

We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks
(NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts …

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces
operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how …

We review and assess the monetary policy framework currently used by the Federal
Reserve, with special focus on policies that operate through the slope of the term structure …

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of sovereign risk in a model in which
banks hold domestic government debt. News of a future sovereign default hampers financial …

Full information methods are used to estimate a nonlinear general equilibrium model where
occasionally binding collateral constraints on housing wealth drive an asymmetry in the link …

This chapter provides an overview of solution and estimation techniques for dynamic
stochastic general equilibrium models. We cover the foundations of numerical …

We evaluate the hypothesis that the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint was, in practice,
irrelevant during the recent ZLB episode experienced by the US economy (the 2009Q1 …

This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic
outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages …

We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts
for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a …