We present a formal model in which elite communication and voters' beliefs during a political
scandal emerge as a communication equilibrium, determined by the severity of the …

Abstracts Under what conditions do armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war?
Existing research suggests foreign states' material support is critical to explaining armed …

The quality of democratic representation is often thought to be predicated upon a robust
fourth estate: the news media provides voters information about the identity and …

Violence against civilians in civil war is widely thought of as a strategic choice by combatant
groups. We argue that a common strategic logic of competition underlies diverse theories of …

Bilateral conflict involves an attacker with several alternative attack methods and a defender
who can take various actions to better respond to different types of attack. These situations …

We analyze the findings of the existing literature on foreign interventions–efforts by one
international actor to alter or preserve the structure of political authority within another–which …

The size of a war, as well as the incentive to start one, depends on expectations about who
will join. These expectations are in turn shaped by alignments and integration. I propose a …

The debate on whether military humanitarian intervention and anti-atrocity norms, such as
the responsibility to protect, cause perverse incentives, and provocative violence by a rebel …

This course provides an overview of the formal theoretical literature on international politics,
with a disproportionate but not exclusive focus on theories of conflict. Because international …

Many factors influence the onset and outcome of secessionist movements. We argue that
before greed, grievance, opportunity, internal politics, or the international system can matter …