How can we identify accurate forecasters? Current gold standard approaches draw from two
sources of information: simple cognitive assessments of reasoning ability and past …

Forecasting tournaments are a well established method for assessing human forecasting
skills. Most forecasting tournaments are based on a format where participants estimate the …

Assessing forecasting proficiency is a time-intensive activity, often requiring us to wait
months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were good. In this …

Research on advice taking frequently utilizes a Judge Advisor System paradigm, in which a
judge reports a prior belief, receives advice, and then revises their initial estimate. However …

The role of the lead psychometrician in this project is to, in consultation with other scientists
and content experts, design and analyze results for a nation-wide norming study for all of …