Develo**, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Intermittent criticality multi‐scale processes leading to large slip events on rough laboratory faults

G Kwiatek, P Martínez‐Garzón, T Goebel… - Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples
performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture …

Implementing non‐poissonian forecasts of distributed seismicity into the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

P Iturrieta, MC Gerstenberger… - Bulletin of the …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Seismicity usually exhibits a non‐Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo
nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current …

Pseudo‐prospective forecasting of induced and natural seismicity in the Hengill geothermal field

VA Ritz, L Mizrahi, V Clasen Repollés… - Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
The Hengill geothermal field, located in southwest Iceland, is host to the Hellisheiði power
plant, with its 40+ production wells and 17 reinjection wells. Located in a tectonically active …

New features in the pyCSEP toolkit for earthquake forecast development and evaluation

KM Graham, JA Bayona… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global
community dedicated to advancing earthquake predictability research by rigorously testing …

Distribution related to all samples and extreme events in the ETAS cluster

I Spassiani, G Petrillo, J Zhuang - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
The probabilistic approach of statistical seismology plays a fundamental role in analyzing
the evolution of an earthquake sequence at different scales to deliver reliable forecasts of …

Pseudo-prospective earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy based on temporal variation of the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law

E Biondini, F D'Orazio, B Lolli… - Geophysical Journal …, 2025 - academic.oup.com
We present the BVAL method, designed to forecast potentially damaging earthquakes (M
w≥ 5.0) in Italy based on temporal variations of the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter …

Comparison between alarm-based and probability-based earthquake forecasting methods

E Biondini, P Gasperini - Geophysical Journal International, 2023 - academic.oup.com
In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS)
probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with …

[PDF][PDF] Modelling induced seismicity in deep geothermal systems

V Ritz - 2023 - research-collection.ethz.ch
Geothermal energy is a renewable and low-carbon energy source relying on the natural
heat hidden in the Earth's crust. In the quest to divest from fossil-fuel based energy sources …