We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical,
normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of …

▪ Abstract For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined
behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as …

Contemporary theories of clinical reasoning espouse a dual processing model, which
consists of a rapid, intuitive component (Type 1) and a slower, logical and analytical …

Personal experiences of economic outcomes, from global financial crises to individual-level
job losses, can shape individual beliefs, risk attitudes, and choices for years to come. A …

Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary
people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were …

This chapter explores research in medical expertise to examine how it may inform the
understanding of the role of deliberate practice in expertise, and talks about new medical …

Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In
contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped …

We investigate whether individual experiences of macroeconomic shocks affect financial risk
taking, as often suggested for the generation that experienced the Great Depression. Using …

When people have access to information sources such as newspaper weather forecasts,
drug-package inserts, and mutual-fund brochures, all of which provide convenient …

This article establishes four key findings of the growing literature on experience effects in
finance:(i) the long-lasting imprint of past experiences on beliefs and risk taking;(ii) recency …