Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the
adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble …

Weather forecasts produced with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of the
atmosphere possess intrinsic uncertainty. This uncertainty is caused through both errors in …

Abstract The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction
experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving …

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical
methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and …

A new sequential data assimilation method is discussed. It is based on forecasting the error
statistics using Monte Carlo methods, a better alternative than solving the traditional and …

Abstract The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble
Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each …

On 7 December 1992, The National Meteorological Center (NMC) started operational
ensemble forecasting. The ensemble forecast configuration implemented provides 14 …

Abstract Knowledge of the probability distribution of initial conditions is central to almost all
practical studies of predictability and to improvements in stochastic prediction of the …

Groundwater represents a pivotal asset in conserving natural water reservoirs for potable
consumption, irrigation, and diverse industrial uses. Nevertheless, human activities …

The binned probability ensemble (BPE) technique is presented as a method for producing
forecasts of the probability distribution of a variable using an ensemble of numerical model …