The outbreak of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic, which is accepted as the third
serious coronavirus outbreak in less than 20 years (Yang et al., 2020), has caused a global …

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES BUBBLES, CRISES, AND HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS
Wei **ong Working Paper 18905 http://www.nber.org/papers/w1 Page 1 NBER WORKING …

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by
forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on US equity …

This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system
named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is …

This paper reviews the literature on Bayesian portfolio analysis. Information about events,
macro conditions, asset pricing theories, and security-driving forces can serve as useful …

ABSTRACT We revisit La Porta's finding that returns on stocks with the most optimistic
analyst long‐term earnings growth forecasts are lower than those on stocks with the most …

The US economy is currently experiencing a period of signifi-cant financial stress. This
stress has contributed to the downturn in the economy by boosting the cost of credit and …

Does macroeconomic uncertainty increase or decrease aggregate growth and asset prices?
To address this question, we decompose aggregate uncertainty into 'good'and 'bad'volatility …

Behavioral finance tries to make sense of financial data using models that are based on
psychologically accurate assumptions about people's beliefs, preferences, and cognitive …

We investigate, in a theoretical framework, the joint role played by investors' attention to
news and learning uncertainty in determining asset prices. The model provides two main …