Advances in Bayesian decision making in reliability

DR Insua, F Ruggeri, R Soyer, S Wilson - European Journal of Operational …, 2020 - Elsevier
Starting in the late 80s Bayesian methods have gained increasing attention in the reliability
literature. The focus of most of the earlier Bayesian work in reliability involved statistical …

Chess AI: competing paradigms for machine intelligence

S Maharaj, N Polson, A Turk - Entropy, 2022 - mdpi.com
Endgame studies have long served as a tool for testing human creativity and intelligence.
We find that they can serve as a tool for testing machine ability as well. Two of the leading …

Augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation for two-stage stochastic programs with recourse

T Ekin, NG Polson, R Soyer - Decision Analysis, 2014 - pubsonline.informs.org
In this paper, we develop a simulation-based approach for two-stage stochastic programs
with recourse. We construct an augmented probability model with stochastic shocks and …

Karpov's Queen Sacrifices and AI

S Maharaj, N Polson - arxiv preprint arxiv:2109.08149, 2021 - arxiv.org
Anatoly Karpov's Queen sacrifices are analyzed. Stockfish 14 NNUE--an AI chess engine--
evaluates how efficient Karpov's sacrifices are. For comparative purposes, we provide a …

Contributions to Large Scale Bayesian Inference and Adversarial Machine Learning

V Gallego - arxiv preprint arxiv:2109.13232, 2021 - arxiv.org
The rampant adoption of ML methodologies has revealed that models are usually adopted
to make decisions without taking into account the uncertainties in their predictions. More …

Gambits: Theory and evidence

S Maharaj, N Polson, C Turk - Applied Stochastic Models in …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Gambits are central to human decision‐making. Our goal is to provide a theory of Gambits. A
Gambit is a combination of psychological and technical factors designed to disrupt …

Contributions to large scale bayesian inference and adversarial machine learning

V Gallego Alcalá - 2022 - docta.ucm.es
The field of machine learning (ML) has experienced a major boom in the past years, both in
theoretical developments and application areas. However, the rampant adoption of ML …

[PDF][PDF] On the Financial Optimization in Dynamic Programming via Tabular Method

FO Ohanuba, P Ezra, N Eze - American Journal of Operational …, 2020 - researchgate.net
This study centers on effective financial management via suitable decision planning to invest
in a competing stock portfolio and sets to clearly describe the procedure of Markowitz's …

Analyzing Risky Choices: Q‐learning for Deal‐No‐Deal

L Korsos, NG Polson - Applied Stochastic Models in Business …, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we derive an optimal strategy for the popular Deal or No Deal game show. To
do this, we use Q‐learning methods, which quantify the continuation value inherent in …

[PDF][PDF] Application of Dynamic Programming to Revenue Management: The Optimum Validity Model's Test (S)

FO Ohanuba, EO Ossai, PN Ezra, MN Eze - researchgate.net
A suitable decision plan is followed by an effective financial management to achieve
optimality while investing in a competing stock portfolio. This study altered a Dynamic …