This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and
modelling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and …

Data obtained from business and consumer surveys are often used in forecasting models
and in testing different expectation formation schemes. Their use, however, requires a …

This article develops a distribution-free procedure for testing the accuracy of forecasts when
the focus of the analysis is on the correct prediction of the direction of change in the variable …

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions
of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common …

Qualitative expectational data from business surveys are widely used to construct forecasts.
However, based typically on evaluation at the macroeconomic level, doubts persist about …

Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. This study has a twofold aim.
First, it proposes a new method to quantify survey-based expectations by means of symbolic …

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions
of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common …

We study diffusion indexes constructed from qualitative surveys to provide real-time
assessments of various aspects of economic activity. In particular, we highlight the role of …

Individual firm data on expectations, plans, appraisals, and realizations concerning their
demand, production, and prices have been collected regularly and in standardized form for …

In this paper we propose a data-driven approach for the construction of survey-based
indicators using large data sets. We make use of agents' expectations about a wide range of …