COVID-19 and the Politics of Crisis

PY Lipscy - International Organization, 2020‏ - cambridge.org
The COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to refocus scholarly attention on the
politics of crisis. Crises that abruptly upend political and economic relations are important …

The reductionist gamble: Open economy politics in the global economy

T Oatley - International organization, 2011‏ - cambridge.org
International political economy (IPE) should transition to “third-wave” scholarship because
Open Economy Politics (OEP), which dominates current American IPE scholarship, can …

Economic coercion and currency crises in target countries

D Peksen, B Son - Journal of Peace Research, 2015‏ - journals.sagepub.com
Despite significant research on the efficacy and inadvertent humanitarian and political
effects of economic sanctions, surprisingly little is known about the possible economic and …

Improving predictions using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

JM Montgomery, FM Hollenbach, MD Ward - Political Analysis, 2012‏ - cambridge.org
We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid
scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence …

Contingent advantage? Sovereign borrowing, democratic institutions and global capital cycles

C Ballard-Rosa, L Mosley… - British Journal of Political …, 2021‏ - cambridge.org
How do domestic and global factors shape governments' capacity to issue debt in primary
capital markets? Consistent with the 'democratic advantage', we identify domestic …

Out of the cabinet: what drives defections from the government in presidential systems?

C Martínez-Gallardo - Comparative Political Studies, 2012‏ - journals.sagepub.com
This article challenges a key part of the conventional view of coalitions in presidential
systems that sees them as short-lived and ad hoc. The author shows instead that there is …

Learning from the past and step** into the future: Toward a new generation of conflict prediction

MD Ward, NW Metternich, CL Dorff… - International Studies …, 2013‏ - academic.oup.com
Develo** political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to
inform public policy decisions, but is also relevant for scientific advancement. This article …

Bilateral trade in the shadow of armed conflict

AG Long - International Studies Quarterly, 2008‏ - academic.oup.com
Does the shadow of war decrease trade? I examine the influence of conflict on bilateral
trade and argue that trading firms' expectations of armed conflict, both within and between …

Democracy and de facto exchange rate regimes

DH Bearce, M Hallerberg - Economics & Politics, 2011‏ - Wiley Online Library
This paper explores the relationship between a country's political regime type and its de
facto exchange rate fixity. It argues that more democratic regimes should be associated with …

Political credit cycles

A Kern, P Amri - Economics & Politics, 2021‏ - Wiley Online Library
This paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between
credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this …