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COVID-19 and the Politics of Crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to refocus scholarly attention on the
politics of crisis. Crises that abruptly upend political and economic relations are important …
politics of crisis. Crises that abruptly upend political and economic relations are important …
The reductionist gamble: Open economy politics in the global economy
International political economy (IPE) should transition to “third-wave” scholarship because
Open Economy Politics (OEP), which dominates current American IPE scholarship, can …
Open Economy Politics (OEP), which dominates current American IPE scholarship, can …
Economic coercion and currency crises in target countries
Despite significant research on the efficacy and inadvertent humanitarian and political
effects of economic sanctions, surprisingly little is known about the possible economic and …
effects of economic sanctions, surprisingly little is known about the possible economic and …
Improving predictions using ensemble Bayesian model averaging
We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid
scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence …
scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence …
Contingent advantage? Sovereign borrowing, democratic institutions and global capital cycles
How do domestic and global factors shape governments' capacity to issue debt in primary
capital markets? Consistent with the 'democratic advantage', we identify domestic …
capital markets? Consistent with the 'democratic advantage', we identify domestic …
Out of the cabinet: what drives defections from the government in presidential systems?
This article challenges a key part of the conventional view of coalitions in presidential
systems that sees them as short-lived and ad hoc. The author shows instead that there is …
systems that sees them as short-lived and ad hoc. The author shows instead that there is …
Learning from the past and step** into the future: Toward a new generation of conflict prediction
Develo** political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to
inform public policy decisions, but is also relevant for scientific advancement. This article …
inform public policy decisions, but is also relevant for scientific advancement. This article …
Bilateral trade in the shadow of armed conflict
Does the shadow of war decrease trade? I examine the influence of conflict on bilateral
trade and argue that trading firms' expectations of armed conflict, both within and between …
trade and argue that trading firms' expectations of armed conflict, both within and between …
Democracy and de facto exchange rate regimes
This paper explores the relationship between a country's political regime type and its de
facto exchange rate fixity. It argues that more democratic regimes should be associated with …
facto exchange rate fixity. It argues that more democratic regimes should be associated with …
Political credit cycles
This paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between
credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this …
credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this …