Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key
problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum …

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in
human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie …

The central tendency bias is a robust finding in data from experiments using Likert scales to
elicit responses. The present paper offers a Bayesian perspective on this bias, explaining it …

In this introductory chapter, I describe what constitutes the domain of cognitive illusions and
how cognitive illusions can be characterized. Much debate has evolved around the classical …

The new paradigm in psychology of reasoning is becoming increasingly established. In this
editorial to the special issue of Thinking & Reasoning we introduce the paradigm and …

Intuition suggests that for a conditional to be evaluated as true, there must be some kind of
connection between its component clauses. In this paper, we formulate and test a new …

A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked
controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations …

The dual strategy model posits that reasoners rely on two information processing strategies
when making inferences: The statistical strategy generates a rapid probabilistic estimate …

There is an ongoing controversy in philosophy about the connection between explanation
and inference. According to Bayesians, explanatory considerations should be given weight …

There is considerable variety in human inference (eg, a doctor inferring the presence of a
disease, a juror inferring the guilt of a defendant, or someone inferring future weight loss …