Small failure probability: principles, progress and perspectives

I Lee, U Lee, P Ramu, D Yadav, G Bayrak… - Structural and …, 2022 - Springer
Abstract Design of structural and multidisciplinary systems under uncertainties requires
estimation of their reliability or equivalently the probability of failure under the given …

Computation of extreme heat waves in climate models using a large deviation algorithm

F Ragone, J Wouters, F Bouchet - Proceedings of the National Academy of …, 2018 - pnas.org
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most
important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty …

Efficient black-box assessment of autonomous vehicle safety

J Norden, M O'Kelly, A Sinha - arxiv preprint arxiv:1912.03618, 2019 - arxiv.org
While autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has shown substantial progress, we still lack
tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the $\textit {de-facto} $ evaluation …

A statistical approach to assessing neural network robustness

S Webb, T Rainforth, YW Teh, MP Kumar - arxiv preprint arxiv:1811.07209, 2018 - arxiv.org
We present a new approach to assessing the robustness of neural networks based on
estimating the proportion of inputs for which a property is violated. Specifically, we estimate …

Neural bridge sampling for evaluating safety-critical autonomous systems

A Sinha, M O'Kelly, R Tedrake… - Advances in Neural …, 2020 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like
autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real …

Adaptive multilevel splitting method for molecular dynamics calculation of benzamidine-trypsin dissociation time

I Teo, CG Mayne, K Schulten… - Journal of chemical theory …, 2016 - ACS Publications
Adaptive multilevel splitting (AMS) is a rare event sampling method that requires minimal
parameter tuning and allows unbiased sampling of transition pathways of a given rare event …

Rare event algorithm links transitions in turbulent flows with activated nucleations

F Bouchet, J Rolland, E Simonnet - Physical review letters, 2019 - APS
Many turbulent flows undergo drastic and abrupt configuration changes with huge impacts.
As a paradigmatic example we study the multistability of jet dynamics in a barotropic beta …

Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

T Lestang, F Ragone, CE Bréhier… - Journal of Statistical …, 2018 - iopscience.iop.org
The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time
(or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance …

Unbiasedness of some generalized adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms

CE Bréhier, M Gazeau, L Goudenège, T Lelièvre… - 2016 - projecteuclid.org
We introduce a generalization of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm in the discrete
time dynamic setting, namely when it is applied to sample rare events associated with paths …

Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain

D Lucente, J Rolland, C Herbert… - Journal of Statistical …, 2022 - iopscience.iop.org
Rare events play a crucial role in many physics, chemistry, and biology phenomena, when
they change the structure of the system, for instance in the case of multistability, or when …