[HTML][HTML] Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging
from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time …
from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time …
[PDF][PDF] Predicting the uncertainty of numerical weather forecasts: A review
M Ehrendorfer - METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT-BERLIN-, 1997 - kestrel.nmt.edu
Weather forecasts produced with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of the
atmosphere possess intrinsic uncertainty. This uncertainty is caused through both errors in …
atmosphere possess intrinsic uncertainty. This uncertainty is caused through both errors in …
The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation
Abstract The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble
Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each …
Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each …
A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts
JL Anderson, SL Anderson - Monthly weather review, 1999 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract Knowledge of the probability distribution of initial conditions is central to almost all
practical studies of predictability and to improvements in stochastic prediction of the …
practical studies of predictability and to improvements in stochastic prediction of the …
A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
JL Anderson - Journal of climate, 1996 - journals.ametsoc.org
The binned probability ensemble (BPE) technique is presented as a method for producing
forecasts of the probability distribution of a variable using an ensemble of numerical model …
forecasts of the probability distribution of a variable using an ensemble of numerical model …
[책][B] The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4)
ECMWF will introduce a new seasonal forecast system (System 4) in November 2011 (*),
following a line of research and development in extended-range predictions which has …
following a line of research and development in extended-range predictions which has …
Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model
TN Palmer - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1993 - journals.ametsoc.org
The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-
component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic …
component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic …
[HTML][HTML] Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
MS Tracton, E Kalnay - Weather and Forecasting, 1993 - journals.ametsoc.org
On 7 December 1992 NMC began operational ensemble prediction. The ensemble
configuration provides 14 independent forecasts every day, verifying on days 1 through 10 …
configuration provides 14 independent forecasts every day, verifying on days 1 through 10 …
[HTML][HTML] Evaluation of Eta–RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from
the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of …
the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of …
The forecast skill horizon
Numerical weather prediction has seen, in the past 25 years, a shift from a 'deterministic'
approach, based on single numerical integrations, to a probabilistic one, with ensembles of …
approach, based on single numerical integrations, to a probabilistic one, with ensembles of …