An overview of applications of proper scoring rules
A Carvalho - Decision Analysis, 2016 - pubsonline.informs.org
We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
Creating a Sustainability Scorecard as a predictive tool for measuring the complex social, economic and environmental impacts of industries, a case study: Assessing …
Sustainability is a key driver for decisions in the management and future development of
industries. The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987) …
industries. The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987) …
Designing markets for prediction
AI Magazine Page 1 Articles 42 AI MAGAZINE Mechanism design has been described as “inverse
game theory.” Whereas game theorists ask what outcome results from a game, mechanism …
game theory.” Whereas game theorists ask what outcome results from a game, mechanism …
Information elicitation for decision making
Proper scoring rules, particularly when used as the basis for a prediction market, are
powerful tools for eliciting and aggregating beliefs about events such as the likely outcome …
powerful tools for eliciting and aggregating beliefs about events such as the likely outcome …
Decision markets with good incentives
Decision markets both predict and decide the future. They allow experts to predict the effects
of each of a set of possible actions, and after reviewing these predictions a decision maker …
of each of a set of possible actions, and after reviewing these predictions a decision maker …
[PDF][PDF] Trading on a Rigged Game: Outcome Manipulation in Prediction Markets.
Prediction markets are popular mechanisms for aggregating information about a future
event. In situations where market participants may significantly influence the outcome …
event. In situations where market participants may significantly influence the outcome …
What you jointly know determines how you act: Strategic interactions in prediction markets
The primary goal of a prediction market is to elicit and aggregate information about some
future event of interest. How well this goal is achieved depends on the behavior of self …
future event of interest. How well this goal is achieved depends on the behavior of self …
Market manipulation with outside incentives
Much evidence has shown that prediction markets, when used in isolation, can effectively
aggregate dispersed information about uncertain future events and produce remarkably …
aggregate dispersed information about uncertain future events and produce remarkably …
Manipulation in conditional decision markets
Conditional decision markets concurrently predict the future and decide on it. These markets
price the impact of decisions, conditional on them being executed. After the markets close, a …
price the impact of decisions, conditional on them being executed. After the markets close, a …
Useful Forecasting: Belief Elicitation for Decision-Making
L Wittrock - Available at SSRN 4531685, 2023 - papers.ssrn.com
Having information about an uncertain event is crucial for informed decision-making. This
paper introduces a simple framework in which 1) a principal uses the reported beliefs of …
paper introduces a simple framework in which 1) a principal uses the reported beliefs of …