An overview of applications of proper scoring rules

A Carvalho - Decision Analysis, 2016 - pubsonline.informs.org
We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …

Creating a Sustainability Scorecard as a predictive tool for measuring the complex social, economic and environmental impacts of industries, a case study: Assessing …

L Buys, K Mengersen, S Johnson, N Van Buuren… - Journal of environmental …, 2014 - Elsevier
Sustainability is a key driver for decisions in the management and future development of
industries. The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987) …

Designing markets for prediction

Y Chen, DM Pennock - AI Magazine, 2010 - ojs.aaai.org
AI Magazine Page 1 Articles 42 AI MAGAZINE Mechanism design has been described as “inverse
game theory.” Whereas game theorists ask what outcome results from a game, mechanism …

Information elicitation for decision making

Y Chen, I Kash - 2011 - dash.harvard.edu
Proper scoring rules, particularly when used as the basis for a prediction market, are
powerful tools for eliciting and aggregating beliefs about events such as the likely outcome …

Decision markets with good incentives

Y Chen, I Kash, M Ruberry, V Shnayder - International Workshop on …, 2011 - Springer
Decision markets both predict and decide the future. They allow experts to predict the effects
of each of a set of possible actions, and after reviewing these predictions a decision maker …

[PDF][PDF] Trading on a Rigged Game: Outcome Manipulation in Prediction Markets.

M Chakraborty, S Das - IJCAI, 2016 - cs.gmu.edu
Prediction markets are popular mechanisms for aggregating information about a future
event. In situations where market participants may significantly influence the outcome …

What you jointly know determines how you act: Strategic interactions in prediction markets

XA Gao, J Zhang, Y Chen - … of the fourteenth ACM conference on …, 2013 - dl.acm.org
The primary goal of a prediction market is to elicit and aggregate information about some
future event of interest. How well this goal is achieved depends on the behavior of self …

Market manipulation with outside incentives

Y Chen, X Gao, R Goldstein, I Kash - … of the AAAI Conference on Artificial …, 2011 - ojs.aaai.org
Much evidence has shown that prediction markets, when used in isolation, can effectively
aggregate dispersed information about uncertain future events and produce remarkably …

Manipulation in conditional decision markets

F Teschner, D Rothschild, H Gimpel - Group Decision and Negotiation, 2017 - Springer
Conditional decision markets concurrently predict the future and decide on it. These markets
price the impact of decisions, conditional on them being executed. After the markets close, a …

Useful Forecasting: Belief Elicitation for Decision-Making

L Wittrock - Available at SSRN 4531685, 2023 - papers.ssrn.com
Having information about an uncertain event is crucial for informed decision-making. This
paper introduces a simple framework in which 1) a principal uses the reported beliefs of …