Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment

S Jain, AA Scaife, TG Shepherd, C Deser… - npj Climate and …, 2023 - nature.com
Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the
process of building realistic climate models and develo** accurate future projections …

Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022

N Dunstone, DM Smith, SC Hardiman, P Davies… - Nature …, 2023 - nature.com
Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are key to a resilient society. However,
standard methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not optimised to identify the rarer and …

Evolution of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulations from CMIP3 to CMIP6 models

BA Choudhury, PV Rajesh, Y Zahan, BN Goswami - Climate Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
Systematic biases in simulation of the mean and variability of Indian summer monsoon
rainfall (ISMR) and its teleconnection with the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by …

Past, present and future perspectives of seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: A review

MJ Madolli, SK Himanshu, ER Patro… - Asia-Pacific Journal of …, 2022 - Springer
This paper presents a detailed review and discussion on the long-range forecast (LRF) of
Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), its present status, problems, and perspectives with …

[HTML][HTML] Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

WJ Merryfield, J Baehr, L Batté… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Alessandri, A., F. Catalano, M. De Felice, B. Van Den Hurk, F. Doblas Reyes, S. Boussetta,
G. Balsamo, and PA Miller, 2017: Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land …

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AA Scaife, MP Baldwin, AH Butler… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - acp.copernicus.org
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of
stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere …

Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles

N Dunstone, D Smith, S Yeager… - Environmental …, 2020 - iopscience.iop.org
Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal
and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised …

Past, present, and future of the South Asian monsoon

CC Ummenhofer, R Geen, RF Denniston… - … Ocean and its Role in the …, 2024 - Elsevier
As a key component of the global climate system, the South Asian monsoon represents the
largest of the Earth's monsoon systems and a lifeline for the region's nearly 2 billion people …

[HTML][HTML] Long-lead statistical forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on causal precursors

G Di Capua, M Kretschmer, J Runge… - Weather and …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
Skillful forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at long lead times (4–5
months in advance) pose great challenges due to strong internal variability of the monsoon …

Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)

A Chevuturi, AG Turner, S Johnson, A Weisheimer… - Climate Dynamics, 2021 - Springer
Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on
seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill …