[PDF][PDF] An overview of four futures methodologies

T Lang - Manoa Journal of Fried and Half-Fried Ideas, 1995 - Citeseer
The aim of futures research is to" help inform perceptions, alternatives and choices about the
future"(Amara 1991: 646). It assists us to understand alternatives or preferences for the …

[BOOK][B] Assumption-based planning: A tool for reducing avoidable surprises

JA Dewar - 2002 - books.google.com
Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an
assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had" forgotten" it was …

[BOOK][B] Policymaking under adversity

Y Dror - 2017 - taylorfrancis.com
This groundbreaking study systematically treats recent policymaking trends, starting with a
reconsideration of salient theoretical issues of policymaking and its study and culminating …

The role of quantitative models in science

N Oreskes - Models in ecosystem science, 2003 - books.google.com
Models in science may be used for various purposes: organizing data, synthesizing
information, and making predictions. However, the value of model predictions is undermined …

Forecasting for policy making in the post–cold war period

SA Feder - Annual Review of Political Science, 2002 - annualreviews.org
▪ Abstract Political science has given policy makers many useful methods and models for
understanding continuities in the world. The utility of many models that were specified with …

[BOOK][B] Innovative comparative methods for policy analysis: Beyond the quantitative-qualitative divide

B Rihoux, H Grimm - 2006 - books.google.com
Innovative Comparative Methods for Policy Analysis aims to provide a decisive push to the
further development and application of innovative and specific comparative methods for the …

Multiple perspectives: Concept, applications, and user guidelines

HA Linstone - Systems practice, 1989 - Springer
The evolution of the multiple perspective approach and its range of applications over the
past decade are reviewed. The traditional technical perspective of systems analysis is …

Application of the Delphi technique to rural tourism project evaluation

J Briedenhann, S Butts - Current Issues in Tourism, 2006 - Taylor & Francis
This paper details the merit, challenges and shortcomings of the Delphi Technique as a
means of obtaining data for a project aimed at formulating an evaluation framework for …

Time Series Forecasting Techniques: Short‐term Planning inTourism

A Athiyaman, RW Robertson - International Journal of Contemporary …, 1992 - emerald.com
Planning, both “operational” and “strategic”, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning
intourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourismdemand forecasting …

[BOOK][B] Revitalizing political psychology: The legacy of Harold D. Lasswell

W Ascher, B Hirschfelder-Ascher - 2004 - taylorfrancis.com
The goal of this book is to recapture the diminished roles of affect, psychological needs, and
the psychodynamic mechanisms that are crucial for understanding political behavior by …