Abstract Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …

El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific have significant and disrupting impacts on
the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) …

This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons
from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to …

In this paper we describe SEAS5, ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which
became operational in November 2017. Compared to its predecessor, System 4, SEAS5 is a …

The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of
processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S …

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe
and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a …

We review the growing evidence for a widespread inconsistency between the low strength of
predictable signals in climate models and the relatively high level of agreement they exhibit …

A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the
stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres …

Interannual variation of seasonal-mean tropical convection over the Indo-Pacific region is
primarily controlled by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, during El Niño …

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial
oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial …