While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …

The earthquake magnitude‐frequency distribution is characterized by the b‐value, which
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …

Identifying the optimal intensity measure (IM) contributes to reducing uncertainties in
probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDM) and enhancing confidence of their results …

Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …

Abstract We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a
spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture …

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions
aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting …

The number of aftershocks increases with mainshock size following a well‐defined scaling
law. However, excursions from the average behavior are common. This variability is …

Abstract The Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe
the occurrence of earthquakes in space and time, but there has been little discussion …

Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress
accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large …