When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost
always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality …

Background Breast and cervical cancer are among the leading causes of preventable
cancer deaths in women in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in breast and …

BACKGROUND Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be
beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this …

Background Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it
often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective The …

Accuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed attention. One
way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of existing models through …

Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age–period data is common
practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures …

We forecast the old‐age dependency ratio for Australia under various pension age
proposals, and estimate a pension age scheme that will provide a stable old‐age …

Time series clustering is an important data mining task with a wide variety of applications.
While most methods focus on time series taking values on the real line, very few works …

We propose a functional time series method to obtain accurate multi-step-ahead forecasts
for age-specific mortality rates. The dynamic functional principal component analysis method …

Background An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different
population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena …