An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

SC Sherwood, MJ Webb, JD Annan… - Reviews of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of
atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes …

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities

MS Williamson, CW Thackeray, PM Cox, A Hall… - Reviews of Modern …, 2021 - APS
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in
projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with …

[HTML][HTML] Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?

M Schlund, A Lauer, P Gentine… - Earth System …, 2020 - esd.copernicus.org
An important metric for temperature projections is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS),
which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature change caused by a doubling …

On structural errors in emergent constraints

BM Sanderson, A Pendergrass… - Earth System …, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
Studies of emergent constraints have frequently proposed that a single metric alone can
constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic emissions. The prevalence …

[책][B] The climate Demon: Past, present, and future of climate prediction

R Saravanan - 2021 - books.google.com
Climate predictions-and the computer models behind them-play a key role in sha** public
opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as' …

Revisiting a constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from a last millennium perspective

S Cropper, CW Thackeray… - Geophysical Research …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Despite decades of effort to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), current best
estimates still exhibit a large spread. Past studies have sought to reduce ECS uncertainty …

Theoretical foundations of emergent constraints: relationships between climate sensitivity and global temperature variability in conceptual models

MS Williamson, PM Cox… - Dynamics and Statistics of …, 2018 - academic.oup.com
Background The emergent constraint approach has received interest recently as a way of
utilizing multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) ensembles to identify relationships …

Cox et al. reply

PM Cox, MS Williamson, FJMM Nijsse, C Huntingford - Nature, 2018 - nature.com
Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) can potentially be narrowed by using an
emergent constraint that relates a currently observable variable to climate-model-simulated …

Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for …

MS Williamson, PM Cox, C Huntingford… - Earth System …, 2024 - esd.copernicus.org
It has been shown that a theoretically derived relation between annual global mean
temperature variability and climate sensitivity held in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble …

What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?

JD Annan, JC Hargreaves, T Mauritsen… - Earth System …, 2020 - esd.copernicus.org
We examine what can be learnt about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface air
temperature record over the instrumental period, from around 1880 to the present. While …