Understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the medium range remains
challenging. Here, we find that the pre-existing westward-moving equatorial waves can …

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce over 50% of tropical precipitation and
account for the majority of extreme rainfall and flooding events. MCSs are considered the …

Tropical cyclone numbers can vary from week to week within a hurricane season. Recent
studies suggest that convectively coupled Kelvin waves can be partly responsible for such …

The quantitative characterization and prediction of localized severe weather events that
emerge as coherences generated by the highly non-linear interacting multivariate dynamics …

This study presents an analysis of the equatorial waves in the ERA5 reanalysis and
forecasts of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), by …

The time-extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) patterns of error developed in a
companion paper are applied in this study for model data postprocessing. Projecting …

The composite structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has long been known to
feature pronounced Rossby gyres in the subtropical upper troposphere, whose existence …

Observational evidence of two extratropical pathways to forcing tropical convective
disturbances is documented through a statistical analysis of satellite-derived OLR and ERA5 …

Equatorial waves are a major driver of widespread convection in Southeast Asia and the
tropics more widely, a region in which accurate heavy rainfall forecasts are still a challenge …

Southeast Asia is a region dominated by high‐impact weather, but numerical weather
prediction here is a challenge owing to the complex orography and interactions between …