Lucky factors
Identifying the factors that drive the cross-section of expected returns is challenging for at
least three reasons. First, the choice of testing approach (time series versus cross-sectional) …
least three reasons. First, the choice of testing approach (time series versus cross-sectional) …
Have risk premia vanished?
We apply a new methodology for identifying pervasive and discrete changes (“breaks”) in
cross-sectional risk premia. Size, value, and investment risk premia have fallen off to the …
cross-sectional risk premia. Size, value, and investment risk premia have fallen off to the …
The oligopoly Lucas tree
This paper proposes a novel quantitative framework with endogenous strategic competition
in heterogeneous concentrated industries. Oligopolies compete strategically for profit …
in heterogeneous concentrated industries. Oligopolies compete strategically for profit …
[HTML][HTML] Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty
Timing premia measure how much consumption people are willing to forgo to resolve all
consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these …
consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these …
Estimating the value of information
We derive a general expression for the value of information to a price-taking investor in a
dynamic environment and provide a framework for its estimation. We study the value of both …
dynamic environment and provide a framework for its estimation. We study the value of both …
Decomposing anomalies
This paper introduces the functional principal component analysis approach for
decomposing the panel returns of the anomaly-sorted portfolios. Using the US stock market …
decomposing the panel returns of the anomaly-sorted portfolios. Using the US stock market …
Return predictability between industries and the stock market in China
We examined the lead–lag relationship between industry portfolio returns and market
returns in China, the largest emerging market, for the period 1993–2019. Using a …
returns in China, the largest emerging market, for the period 1993–2019. Using a …
Optimal cross-sectional regression
Errors-in-variables (EIV) biases plague asset pricing tests. We offer a new perspective on
addressing the EIV issue: instead of viewing EIV biases as estimation errors that potentially …
addressing the EIV issue: instead of viewing EIV biases as estimation errors that potentially …
Does history repeat itself? Business cycle and industry returns
Industries with higher historical business cycle regime Sharpe ratios (RSR) have higher
regime-dependent expected returns. Conditional on whether output gap is positive or …
regime-dependent expected returns. Conditional on whether output gap is positive or …
Liquidity and the strategic value of information
In, the ratio of fundamental variance to price impact measures the value of information to a
monopolist strategic informed investor. We show that this same statistic provides an …
monopolist strategic informed investor. We show that this same statistic provides an …