We document shifts in the lead‐lag properties of the US business cycle since the mid‐
1980s. Specifically,(1) the well‐known inverted leading indicator property of real interest …

This paper examines whether people's animal spirits were drivers of US business cycle
fluctuations. In the context of an estimated macroeconomy with endogenous financial market …

This paper uncovers a series of belief shocks that drive the US economy from both financial
markets data and a financial accelerator model with self-fulfiling prophecies. Indeterminacy …

This paper stresses a new channel through which global financial linkages contribute to the
co‐movement in economic activity across countries. We show in a two‐country setting with …

Since the onset of the Great Moderation US nominal and real interest rates underwent a
significant shift in their cyclicality from inverted leading indicators to positive lagging …

We document shifts in the lead-lag properties of the US business cycle since the mid-1980s.
Specifically,(i) the well-known inverted-leading-indicator-property of real interest rates has …

This dissertation consists of three essays studying macroeconomic implications of economic
agents' decision making subject to risk. In Chapter 1, I explain the decline in both …

The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features:(i) it moves in a
countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity …