Indicators of transitions in biological systems

CF Clements, A Ozgul - Ecology letters, 2018‏ - Wiley Online Library
In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key
goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWS s) …

Implementing measurement error models with mechanistic mathematical models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction …

RJ Murphy, OJ Maclaren… - Journal of the Royal …, 2024‏ - royalsocietypublishing.org
Throughout the life sciences, we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations
using parametrized mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked …

The basis function approach for modeling autocorrelation in ecological data

TJ Hefley, KM Broms, BM Brost, FE Buderman… - Ecology, 2017‏ - Wiley Online Library
Analyzing ecological data often requires modeling the autocorrelation created by spatial and
temporal processes. Many seemingly disparate statistical methods used to account for …

Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

CF Clements, A Ozgul - Nature communications, 2016‏ - nature.com
Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the
development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators …

European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse

SS Downey, WR Haas Jr, SJ Shennan - Proceedings of the National …, 2016‏ - pnas.org
Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization—regime shift—may exhibit declining
resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as …

Profile-Wise Analysis: A profile likelihood-based workflow for identifiability analysis, estimation, and prediction with mechanistic mathematical models

MJ Simpson, OJ Maclaren - PLOS Computational Biology, 2023‏ - journals.plos.org
Interpreting data using mechanistic mathematical models provides a foundation for
discovery and decision-making in all areas of science and engineering. Develo** …

Anticipating critical transitions in psychological systems using early warning signals: Theoretical and practical considerations.

F Dablander, A Pichler, A Cika, A Bacilieri - Psychological Methods, 2023‏ - psycnet.apa.org
Many real-world systems can exhibit tip** points and multiple stable states, creating the
potential for sudden and difficult to reverse transitions into a less desirable regime. The …

Dynamic analysis of a fuzzy Bobwhite quail population model under g-division law

M Ouyang, Q Zhang, M Cai, Z Zeng - Scientific Reports, 2024‏ - nature.com
This paper is concerned with a kind of Bobwhite quail population model xn+ 1= A+ B xn+
xnxn-1 xn-2, n= 0, 1,⋯, where the parameters and initial values are positive parabolic fuzzy …

Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse

CF Clements, JM Drake, JI Griffiths… - The American …, 2015‏ - journals.uchicago.edu
The recent description of potentially generic early warning signals is a promising
development that may help conservationists to anticipate a population's collapse prior to its …

Rising variability, not slowing down, as a leading indicator of a stochastically driven abrupt transition in a dryland ecosystem

N Chen, C Jayaprakash, K Yu… - The American …, 2018‏ - journals.uchicago.edu
Complex systems can undergo abrupt state transitions near critical points. Theory and
controlled experimental studies suggest that the approach to critical points can be …