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Bayesian inference for misspecified generative models
Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of
increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed …
increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed …
Inducing sparsity and shrinkage in time-varying parameter models
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized,
particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are …
particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are …
Model interpretation through lower-dimensional posterior summarization
Nonparametric regression models have recently surged in their power and popularity,
accompanying the trend of increasing dataset size and complexity. While these models have …
accompanying the trend of increasing dataset size and complexity. While these models have …
Bayesian variable selection for understanding mixtures in environmental exposures
Social and environmental stressors are crucial factors in child development. However, there
exists a multitude of measurable social and environmental factors—the effects of which may …
exists a multitude of measurable social and environmental factors—the effects of which may …
Fast, optimal, and targeted predictions using parameterized decision analysis
DR Kowal - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical
inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision …
inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision …
Incorporating different sources of information for Bayesian optimal portfolio selection
This article introduces Bayesian inference procedures for tangency portfolios, with a primary
focus on deriving a new conjugate prior for portfolio weights. This approach not only enables …
focus on deriving a new conjugate prior for portfolio weights. This approach not only enables …
Bayesian subset selection and variable importance for interpretable prediction and classification
DR Kowal - Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2022 - jmlr.org
Subset selection is a valuable tool for interpretable learning, scientific discovery, and data
compression. However, classical subset selection is often avoided due to selection …
compression. However, classical subset selection is often avoided due to selection …
Tree ensembles with rule structured horseshoe regularization
We propose a new Bayesian model for flexible nonlinear regression and classification using
tree ensembles. The model is based on the RuleFit approach in Friedman and Popescu …
tree ensembles. The model is based on the RuleFit approach in Friedman and Popescu …
Bayesian adaptive and interpretable functional regression for exposure profiles
Y Gao, DR Kowal - The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2024 - projecteuclid.org
Bayesian adaptive and interpretable functional regression for exposure profiles Page 1 The
Annals of Applied Statistics 2024, Vol. 18, No. 1, 642–663 https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1805 …
Annals of Applied Statistics 2024, Vol. 18, No. 1, 642–663 https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1805 …
Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR)
models. But at the same time, they introduce the restriction that each equation features the …
models. But at the same time, they introduce the restriction that each equation features the …