The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have
resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances …
resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances …
Convection‐permitting models: a step‐change in rainfall forecasting
P Clark, N Roberts, H Lean, SP Ballard… - Meteorological …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) have provided weather forecasting centres with a
step‐change in capabilities for forecasting rainfall. They are now used operationally to …
step‐change in capabilities for forecasting rainfall. They are now used operationally to …
A generative deep learning approach to stochastic downscaling of precipitation forecasts
L Harris, ATT McRae, M Chantry… - Journal of Advances …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and
reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that …
reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that …
Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification
Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality
and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a …
and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a …
[HTML][HTML] Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations
Accadia, C., S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, A. Lavagnini, and A. Speranza, 2003: Sensitivity of
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …
The Met Office convective‐scale ensemble, MOGREPS‐UK
S Hagelin, J Son, R Swinbank… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Since 2012 the Met Office has been running a short‐range convective‐scale ensemble
prediction system over the United Kingdom, known as MOGREPS‐UK. In this article we …
prediction system over the United Kingdom, known as MOGREPS‐UK. In this article we …
Representing forecast error in a convection-permitting ensemble system
Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather
hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular …
hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular …
[HTML][HTML] Towards the next generation operational meteorological radar
This article summarizes research and risk reduction that will inform acquisition decisions
regarding NOAA's future national operational weather radar network. A key alternative being …
regarding NOAA's future national operational weather radar network. A key alternative being …
Severe weather prediction using storm surrogates from an ensemble forecasting system
Probabilistic severe weather forecasts for days 1 and 2 were produced using 30-member
convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data …
convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data …
[HTML][HTML] Characterizing and optimizing precipitation forecasts from a convection-permitting ensemble initialized by a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter
Accadia, C., Mariani S., Casaioli M., Lavagnini A., and Speranza A., 2003: Sensitivity of
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …