The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

P Bauer, A Thorpe, G Brunet - Nature, 2015 - nature.com
Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have
resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances …

Convection‐permitting models: a step‐change in rainfall forecasting

P Clark, N Roberts, H Lean, SP Ballard… - Meteorological …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) have provided weather forecasting centres with a
step‐change in capabilities for forecasting rainfall. They are now used operationally to …

A generative deep learning approach to stochastic downscaling of precipitation forecasts

L Harris, ATT McRae, M Chantry… - Journal of Advances …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and
reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that …

Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification

J Leinonen, U Hamann, D Nerini, U Germann… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality
and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a …

[HTML][HTML] Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations

CS Schwartz, RA Sobash - Monthly Weather Review, 2017 - journals.ametsoc.org
Accadia, C., S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, A. Lavagnini, and A. Speranza, 2003: Sensitivity of
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …

The Met Office convective‐scale ensemble, MOGREPS‐UK

S Hagelin, J Son, R Swinbank… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Since 2012 the Met Office has been running a short‐range convective‐scale ensemble
prediction system over the United Kingdom, known as MOGREPS‐UK. In this article we …

Representing forecast error in a convection-permitting ensemble system

GS Romine, CS Schwartz, J Berner… - Monthly Weather …, 2014 - journals.ametsoc.org
Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather
hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular …

[HTML][HTML] Towards the next generation operational meteorological radar

M Weber, K Hondl, N Yussouf, Y Jung… - Bulletin of the …, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
This article summarizes research and risk reduction that will inform acquisition decisions
regarding NOAA's future national operational weather radar network. A key alternative being …

Severe weather prediction using storm surrogates from an ensemble forecasting system

RA Sobash, CS Schwartz, GS Romine… - Weather and …, 2016 - journals.ametsoc.org
Probabilistic severe weather forecasts for days 1 and 2 were produced using 30-member
convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data …

[HTML][HTML] Characterizing and optimizing precipitation forecasts from a convection-permitting ensemble initialized by a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter

CS Schwartz, GS Romine, KR Smith… - Weather and …, 2014 - journals.ametsoc.org
Accadia, C., Mariani S., Casaioli M., Lavagnini A., and Speranza A., 2003: Sensitivity of
precipitation forecast skill scores to bilinear interpolation and a simple nearest-neighbor …