BACKGROUND Despite many notable successes in prevention and control, infectious
diseases remain an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and …

Abstract In 1915, Greenwood and Yule noted that for valid vaccine efficacy studies,
exposure to infection in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated must be equal (Proc R Soc …

For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and
predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a …

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For
childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular …

Contact tracing, followed by treatment or isolation, is a key control measure in the battle
against infectious diseases. It is an extreme form of locally targeted control, and as such has …

In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease
became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic …

SUMMARY A key issue in the dynamical modelling of epidemics is the synthesis of complex
mathematical models and data by means of time series analysis. We report such an …

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease
remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles …

Tuberculosis, although preventable and curable, causes more adult deaths than any other
infectious disease. A theoretical framework for designing effective control strategies is …

The paper reviews the work of Kermack and McKendrick on the development of simple
mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of viral and bacterial infectious agents …