Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment

M Burgman, A Carr, L Godden, R Gregory… - Conservation …, 2011‏ - Wiley Online Library
Expert judgments are a necessary part of environmental management. Typically, experts are
defined by their qualifications, track record, professional standing, and experience. We …

Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds

DV Budescu, E Chen - Management science, 2015‏ - pubsonline.informs.org
Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such
aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation …

[ספר][B] The Black Swan:: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section:" On Robustness and Fragility"

NN Taleb - 2010‏ - books.google.com
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of
everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called “On …

The wisdom of select crowds.

AE Mannes, JB Soll, RP Larrick - Journal of personality and social …, 2014‏ - psycnet.apa.org
Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When
individual judgments about some fact (eg, the unemployment rate for next quarter) are …

Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.

TJ Pleskac, JR Busemeyer - Psychological review, 2010‏ - psycnet.apa.org
Abstract [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 118 (1) of
Psychological Review (see record 2011-00732-004). The name of the philosopher Charles …

Advice taking in decision making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation

I Yaniv, E Kleinberger - Organizational behavior and human decision …, 2000‏ - Elsevier
Our framework for understanding advice-taking in decision making rests on two theoretical
concepts that motivate the studies and serve to explain the findings. The first is egocentric …

Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit

I Yaniv - Organizational behavior and human decision …, 2004‏ - Elsevier
Seeking advice is a basic practice in making real life decisions. Until recently, however, little
attention has been given to it in either empirical studies or theories of decision making. The …

Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications

T McAndrew, N Wattanachit… - Wiley Interdisciplinary …, 2021‏ - Wiley Online Library
Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can
produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly …

Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask

J Klayman, JB Soll, C Gonzalez-Vallejo… - … behavior and human …, 1999‏ - Elsevier
Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds
their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However …

[ספר][B] Trusting judgements: how to get the best out of experts

MA Burgman - 2015‏ - books.google.com
Policy-and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …