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Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment
Expert judgments are a necessary part of environmental management. Typically, experts are
defined by their qualifications, track record, professional standing, and experience. We …
defined by their qualifications, track record, professional standing, and experience. We …
Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds
Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such
aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation …
aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation …
[ספר][B] The Black Swan:: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section:" On Robustness and Fragility"
NN Taleb - 2010 - books.google.com
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of
everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called “On …
everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called “On …
The wisdom of select crowds.
Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When
individual judgments about some fact (eg, the unemployment rate for next quarter) are …
individual judgments about some fact (eg, the unemployment rate for next quarter) are …
Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.
Abstract [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 118 (1) of
Psychological Review (see record 2011-00732-004). The name of the philosopher Charles …
Psychological Review (see record 2011-00732-004). The name of the philosopher Charles …
Advice taking in decision making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation
Our framework for understanding advice-taking in decision making rests on two theoretical
concepts that motivate the studies and serve to explain the findings. The first is egocentric …
concepts that motivate the studies and serve to explain the findings. The first is egocentric …
Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit
Seeking advice is a basic practice in making real life decisions. Until recently, however, little
attention has been given to it in either empirical studies or theories of decision making. The …
attention has been given to it in either empirical studies or theories of decision making. The …
Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can
produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly …
produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly …
Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask
Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds
their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However …
their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However …
[ספר][B] Trusting judgements: how to get the best out of experts
MA Burgman - 2015 - books.google.com
Policy-and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …
without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical …