Forecast evaluation

KD West - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2006 - Elsevier
This chapter summarizes recent literature on asymptotic inference about forecasts. Both
analytical and simulation based methods are discussed. The emphasis is on techniques …

A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics

J Fan - Statistical Science, 2005 - JSTOR
This paper gives a brief overview of the nonparametric techniques that are useful for
financial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inference for …

Quantile autoregression

R Koenker, Z **ao - Journal of the American statistical association, 2006 - Taylor & Francis
We consider quantile autoregression (QAR) models in which the autoregressive coefficients
can be expressed as monotone functions of a single, scalar random variable. The models …

Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality

MW McCracken - Journal of econometrics, 2007 - Elsevier
This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo and empirical evidence concerning out-of-
sample tests of Granger causality. The environment is one in which the relative predictive …

Statistical methods with varying coefficient models

J Fan, W Zhang - Statistics and its Interface, 2008 - pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
The varying coefficient models are very important tool to explore the dynamic pattern in
many scientific areas, such as economics, finance, politics, epidemiology, medical science …

[KNYGA][B] Modelling nonlinear economic time series

T Teräsvirta, D Tjøstheim, CWJ Granger - 2010 - academic.oup.com
This book contains a up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their
application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary …

Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors

Z Cai - Journal of Econometrics, 2007 - Elsevier
This paper studies a time-varying coefficient time series model with a time trend function and
serially correlated errors to characterize the nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and trending …

An automatic portmanteau test for serial correlation

JC Escanciano, IN Lobato - Journal of Econometrics, 2009 - Elsevier
This article introduces a data-driven Box–Pierce test for serial correlation. The proposed test
is very attractive compared to the existing ones. In particular, implementation of this test is …

Nonparametric quantile estimations for dynamic smooth coefficient models

Z Cai, X Xu - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2008 - Taylor & Francis
We suggest quantile regression methods for a class of smooth coefficient time series
models. We use both local polynomial and local constant fitting schemes to estimate the …

Adaptive varying-coefficient linear models

J Fan, Q Yao, Z Cai - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society …, 2003 - academic.oup.com
Varying-coefficient linear models arise from multivariate nonparametric regression, non-
linear time series modelling and forecasting, functional data analysis, longitudinal data …