Internet outages are inevitable, frequent, opaque, and expensive. To make things worse,
they are poorly understood, while a deep understanding of them is essential for …

Abstract We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a
spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture …

A New Paradigm is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA, not only from
consideration of (a) the huge human losses experienced in the many recently destructive …

Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), dating back to the turn of the
Millennium, is the new multi-disciplinary scenario-and physics-based approach for the …

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but
the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities …

摘要本文概述作者在龙门山断裂带中, 小地震精确定位, 地震活动性以及2008 年汶川MW7. 9
(MS8. 0) 地震和2013 年芦山MW6. 7 (MS7. 0) 地震破裂过程等方面所做的研究工作 …

Unraveling the precursory signals of potentially destructive earthquakes is crucial to
understand the Earth's crust dynamics and to provide reliable seismic warnings. Earthquake …

According to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach, the
deterministically evaluated or historically defined largest credible earthquakes (often …

This article reports on a workshop held to explore the potential uses of operational
earthquake forecasting (OEF). We discuss the current status of OEF in the United States and …

Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic
activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation …