Abstract Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …

El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific have significant and disrupting impacts on
the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) …

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection,
attribution, prediction and projection of climate change,–. Although inter-model agreement is …

Abstract The MPI‐ESM1. 2 is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System
Model and is the baseline for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and …

The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of
processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S …

Extreme events such as heat waves and cold spells, droughts, heavy rain, and storms are
particularly challenging to predict accurately due to their rarity and chaotic nature, and …

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions
that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons …

Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities,
ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts …

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous
social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time …

Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive
power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we …