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A review of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning
Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability
distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users …
distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users …
An overview of applications of proper scoring rules
A Carvalho - Decision Analysis, 2016 - pubsonline.informs.org
We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
Interpretable deep learning for probabilistic MJO prediction
Abstract The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of sub‐seasonal
variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection …
variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection …
Stochastic and perturbed parameter representations of model uncertainty in convection parameterization
It is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is
essential for the production of reliable probabilistic forecasts, and a number of different …
essential for the production of reliable probabilistic forecasts, and a number of different …
Evaluation of the skill of monthly precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems over the Greater Horn of Africa
HS Endris, L Hirons, ZT Segele… - Weather and …, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
The skill of precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems has a strong regional and
seasonal dependence. Quantifying the skill of models for different regions and time scales is …
seasonal dependence. Quantifying the skill of models for different regions and time scales is …
Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability
forecasts (1982–2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North …
forecasts (1982–2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North …
Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics
E Wheatcroft - International Journal of Forecasting, 2019 - Elsevier
Performance measures of point forecasts are expressed commonly as skill scores, in which
the performance gain from using one forecasting system over another is expressed as a …
the performance gain from using one forecasting system over another is expressed as a …
Using regional scaling for temperature forecasts with the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS)
Over time scales between 10 days and 10–20 years—the macroweather regime—
atmospheric fields, including the temperature, respect statistical scale symmetries, such as …
atmospheric fields, including the temperature, respect statistical scale symmetries, such as …
Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system
We present the evaluation of temperature and precipitation forecasts obtained with the
MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. These decadal hindcast experiments are verified …
MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. These decadal hindcast experiments are verified …
[PDF][PDF] Calibration of large neural weather models
Uncertainty quantification of weather forecasts is a necessity for reliably planning for and
responding to extreme weather events in a warming world. This motivates the need for well …
responding to extreme weather events in a warming world. This motivates the need for well …