Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings

E Payzan-LeNestour, P Bossaerts - PLoS computational biology, 2011 - journals.plos.org
Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating
rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here …

Do not bet on the unknown versus try to find out more: estimation uncertainty and “unexpected uncertainty” both modulate exploration

É Payzan-LeNestour, P Bossaerts - Frontiers in neuroscience, 2012 - frontiersin.org
Little is known about how humans solve the exploitation/exploration trade-off. In particular,
the evidence for uncertainty-driven exploration is mixed. The current study proposes a novel …

Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

A Quinn, M Kárný, TV Guy - Information Sciences, 2016 - Elsevier
The minimum cross-entropy principle is an established technique for design of an unknown
distribution, processing linear functional constraints on the distribution. More generally, fully …

Learning about unstable, publicly unobservable payoffs

E Payzan-LeNestour, P Bossaerts - The Review of Financial …, 2015 - academic.oup.com
Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations,
Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change …

Overcoming representation bias in fairness-aware data repair using optimal transport

A Langbridge, A Quinn, R Shorten - arxiv preprint arxiv:2410.02840, 2024 - arxiv.org
Optimal transport (OT) has an important role in transforming data distributions in a manner
which engenders fairness. Typically, the OT operators are learnt from the unfair attribute …

[HTML][HTML] Optimal design of priors constrained by external predictors

A Quinn, M Kárný, TV Guy - International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2017 - Elsevier
This paper exploits knowledge made available by an external source in the form of a
predictive distribution in order to elicit a parameter prior. It uses the terminology of Bayesian …

Comparative analysis of behavioral models for adaptive learning in changing environments

D Marković, SJ Kiebel - Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 2016 - frontiersin.org
Probabilistic models of decision making under various forms of uncertainty have been
applied in recent years to numerous behavioral and model-based fMRI studies. These …

Dirichlet process mixture models for non-stationary data streams

I Casado, A Pérez - 2022 IEEE International Conference on …, 2022 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
In recent years we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary
data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate …

[PDF][PDF] Bayesian learning in unstable settings: Experimental evidence based on the bandit problem

E Payzan-LeNestour - Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, 2010 - Citeseer
We study learning in a bandit task in which the outcome probabilities of six arms switch
(“jump”) over time. In the experiment, optimal Bayesian learning tracks the jumps by …

Hierarchical fully probabilistic design for deliberator-based merging in multiple participant systems

S Azizi, A Quinn - IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and …, 2016 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We address the problem of merging probabilistic knowledge in a centralized (nonflat)
multiple participant system. Each participant independently reports a known distribution of a …