Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings
Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating
rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here …
rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here …
Do not bet on the unknown versus try to find out more: estimation uncertainty and “unexpected uncertainty” both modulate exploration
Little is known about how humans solve the exploitation/exploration trade-off. In particular,
the evidence for uncertainty-driven exploration is mixed. The current study proposes a novel …
the evidence for uncertainty-driven exploration is mixed. The current study proposes a novel …
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
The minimum cross-entropy principle is an established technique for design of an unknown
distribution, processing linear functional constraints on the distribution. More generally, fully …
distribution, processing linear functional constraints on the distribution. More generally, fully …
Learning about unstable, publicly unobservable payoffs
Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations,
Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change …
Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change …
Overcoming representation bias in fairness-aware data repair using optimal transport
Optimal transport (OT) has an important role in transforming data distributions in a manner
which engenders fairness. Typically, the OT operators are learnt from the unfair attribute …
which engenders fairness. Typically, the OT operators are learnt from the unfair attribute …
[HTML][HTML] Optimal design of priors constrained by external predictors
This paper exploits knowledge made available by an external source in the form of a
predictive distribution in order to elicit a parameter prior. It uses the terminology of Bayesian …
predictive distribution in order to elicit a parameter prior. It uses the terminology of Bayesian …
Comparative analysis of behavioral models for adaptive learning in changing environments
Probabilistic models of decision making under various forms of uncertainty have been
applied in recent years to numerous behavioral and model-based fMRI studies. These …
applied in recent years to numerous behavioral and model-based fMRI studies. These …
Dirichlet process mixture models for non-stationary data streams
In recent years we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary
data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate …
data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate …
[PDF][PDF] Bayesian learning in unstable settings: Experimental evidence based on the bandit problem
E Payzan-LeNestour - Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, 2010 - Citeseer
We study learning in a bandit task in which the outcome probabilities of six arms switch
(“jump”) over time. In the experiment, optimal Bayesian learning tracks the jumps by …
(“jump”) over time. In the experiment, optimal Bayesian learning tracks the jumps by …
Hierarchical fully probabilistic design for deliberator-based merging in multiple participant systems
S Azizi, A Quinn - IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and …, 2016 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We address the problem of merging probabilistic knowledge in a centralized (nonflat)
multiple participant system. Each participant independently reports a known distribution of a …
multiple participant system. Each participant independently reports a known distribution of a …