Develo**, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Aftershock forecasting

JL Hardebeck, AL Llenos, AJ Michael… - Annual Review of …, 2024 - annualreviews.org
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …

Applying the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) in earthquake spatial forecasting: a case study on probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) estimation in the …

W Triyoso - Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
This study uses complete earthquake catalog data and spatio-temporal analysis to construct
a reliable model to forecast the potential seismogenic earthquake or earthquake fault zones …

Critical questions about CSEP, in the spirit of Dave, Yan, and Ilya

F Schoenberg, D Schorlemmer - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
In honor of our dear departed friends Yan Kagan, Dave Jackson, and Ilya Zaliapin, we
propose a selection of broad questions regarding earthquake forecasting and especially the …

New features in the pyCSEP toolkit for earthquake forecast development and evaluation

KM Graham, JA Bayona… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global
community dedicated to advancing earthquake predictability research by rigorously testing …

Building a general algorithm for seismic hazard analysis in the Sunda arc through geodynamic simulations

W Triyoso, S Rosalia, H Grandis - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Because of its well‐documented subduction zone and outer island arc, Sumatra provides a
unique setting for studying and forecasting earthquakes within the seismically active Sunda …

Assessing the predictive power of GPS‐based ground deformation data for aftershock forecasting

VM Schimmenti, G Petrillo… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
We present a machine learning approach for aftershock forecasting of the Japanese
earthquakes catalog. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as …

China's efforts on the CSEP and a retrospective case

H Yu, J Zhang, Y Liu, Y Zhang, CH Chen… - … , Natural Hazards and …, 2025 - Taylor & Francis
China has established a Testing Center on the Collaboration for the Study of Earthquake
Prediction (CSEP) for standardized evaluation of current earthquake prediction methods …

The need for open, transdisciplinary, and ethical science in seismology

I Dallo, M Herrmann, M Supino, JA Bayona… - …, 2023 - research-collection.ethz.ch
Reducing the seismic risk for societies requires a bridge between scientific knowledge and
so-cietal actions. In recent years, three subjects that facilitate this connection gained growing …

Comparative evaluation of earthquake forecasting models: An application to Italy

JR Brehmer, K Kraus, T Gneiting, M Herrmann… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting
models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase …