Extreme events such as heat waves and cold spells, droughts, heavy rain, and storms are
particularly challenging to predict accurately due to their rarity and chaotic nature, and …

Scientific and technological advances in numerical modelling have improved the quality of
climate predictions over recent decades, but predictive skill remains limited in many aspects …

Earth system predictions, from sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, remain a challenging
task, and the representation of predictability sources on seasonal timescales is a complex …

This paper proposes an approach to diagnosing the skill of a machine-learning prediction
model based on finding combinations of variables that minimize the normalized mean …

Europe faces droughts, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events every year. To
prevent the worst of the impacts good probabilistic forecasts are needed, ideally issued …

Europe faces impactful droughts, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events every year.
Ideally, these events would be predicted in advance so that society can take action and …