Human probability judgments are systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian
models of cognition. But perhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but …

One of the most robust effects in cognitive psychology is anchoring, in which judgments
show a bias toward previously viewed values. However, in what is essentially the same task …

Human beings perform well in uncertain environments, matching the performance of
complex probabilistic models in complex tasks such as language or physical system …

People must often make inferences about, and decisions concerning, a highly complex and
unpredictable world, on the basis of sparse evidence. An “ideal” normative approach to such …