Sudden stratospheric warmings

MP Baldwin, B Ayarzagüena, T Birner… - Reviews of …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which
large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (∼ 10–50 km) are …

Fifty years of research on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Recent progress, challenges, and perspectives

X Jiang, ÁF Adames, D Kim… - Journal of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Since its discovery in the early 1970s, the crucial role of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
(MJO) in the global hydrological cycle and its tremendous influence on high‐impact climate …

Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond

A Mariotti, C Baggett, EA Barnes… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions
that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons …

The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling

DIV Domeisen, AH Butler… - Journal of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to
seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S …

The Southern Hemisphere minor sudden stratospheric warming in September 2019 and its predictions in S2S models

J Rao, CI Garfinkel, IP White… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
A minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) happened in September 2019 in the Southern
Hemisphere (SH) with winds at 10 hPa, 60° S reaching their minimum value on 18 …

Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a multimodel ensemble

AY Karpechko, A Charlton‐Perez… - Geophysical …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal
predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open …

[HTML][HTML] Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

WJ Merryfield, J Baehr, L Batté… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Alessandri, A., F. Catalano, M. De Felice, B. Van Den Hurk, F. Doblas Reyes, S. Boussetta,
G. Balsamo, and PA Miller, 2017: Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land …

Global precipitation hindcast quality assessment of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models

FM de Andrade, CAS Coelho, IFA Cavalcanti - Climate Dynamics, 2019 - Springer
This study assessed subseasonal global precipitation hindcast quality from all Subseasonal
to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Deterministic forecast quality of weekly …

The 2019 new year stratospheric sudden warming and its real‐time predictions in multiple S2S models

J Rao, CI Garfinkel, H Chen… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Using multiple data sources, favorable conditions for the 2019 SSW event and its predictive
skill from 11 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models are explored in this study. This …

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AA Scaife, MP Baldwin, AH Butler… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - acp.copernicus.org
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of
stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere …