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Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—
e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all …
e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all …
Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting
We derive confidence intervals (CIs) and confidence sequences (CSs) for the classical
problem of estimating a bounded mean. Our approach generalizes and improves on the …
problem of estimating a bounded mean. Our approach generalizes and improves on the …
Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences
A confidence sequence is a sequence of confidence intervals that is uniformly valid over an
unbounded time horizon. Our work develops confidence sequences whose widths go to …
unbounded time horizon. Our work develops confidence sequences whose widths go to …
Simple bayesian algorithms for best arm identification
D Russo - Conference on learning theory, 2016 - proceedings.mlr.press
This paper considers the optimal adaptive allocation of measurement effort for identifying the
best among a finite set of options or designs. An experimenter sequentially chooses designs …
best among a finite set of options or designs. An experimenter sequentially chooses designs …
Top two algorithms revisited
Top two algorithms arose as an adaptation of Thompson sampling to best arm identification
in multi-armed bandit models for parametric families of arms. They select the next arm to …
in multi-armed bandit models for parametric families of arms. They select the next arm to …
Testing exchangeability: Fork-convexity, supermartingales and e-processes
Suppose we observe an infinite series of coin flips X 1, X 2,…, and wish to sequentially test
the null that these binary random variables are exchangeable. Nonnegative …
the null that these binary random variables are exchangeable. Nonnegative …
Inference for batched bandits
As bandit algorithms are increasingly utilized in scientific studies and industrial applications,
there is an associated increasing need for reliable inference methods based on the resulting …
there is an associated increasing need for reliable inference methods based on the resulting …
Fully-adaptive composition in differential privacy
Composition is a key feature of differential privacy. Well-known advanced composition
theorems allow one to query a private database quadratically more times than basic privacy …
theorems allow one to query a private database quadratically more times than basic privacy …
Non-asymptotic pure exploration by solving games
Pure exploration (aka active testing) is the fundamental task of sequentially gathering
information to answer a query about a stochastic environment. Good algorithms make few …
information to answer a query about a stochastic environment. Good algorithms make few …
Fast pure exploration via frank-wolfe
We study the problem of active pure exploration with fixed confidence in generic stochastic
bandit environments. The goal of the learner is to answer a query about the environment …
bandit environments. The goal of the learner is to answer a query about the environment …