Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference

A Ramdas, P Grünwald, V Vovk, G Shafer - Statistical Science, 2023 - projecteuclid.org
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—
e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all …

Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting

I Waudby-Smith, A Ramdas - Journal of the Royal Statistical …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We derive confidence intervals (CIs) and confidence sequences (CSs) for the classical
problem of estimating a bounded mean. Our approach generalizes and improves on the …

Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences

SR Howard, A Ramdas, J McAuliffe, J Sekhon - The Annals of Statistics, 2021 - JSTOR
A confidence sequence is a sequence of confidence intervals that is uniformly valid over an
unbounded time horizon. Our work develops confidence sequences whose widths go to …

Simple bayesian algorithms for best arm identification

D Russo - Conference on learning theory, 2016 - proceedings.mlr.press
This paper considers the optimal adaptive allocation of measurement effort for identifying the
best among a finite set of options or designs. An experimenter sequentially chooses designs …

Top two algorithms revisited

M Jourdan, R Degenne, D Baudry… - Advances in …, 2022 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Top two algorithms arose as an adaptation of Thompson sampling to best arm identification
in multi-armed bandit models for parametric families of arms. They select the next arm to …

Testing exchangeability: Fork-convexity, supermartingales and e-processes

A Ramdas, J Ruf, M Larsson, WM Koolen - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Suppose we observe an infinite series of coin flips X 1, X 2,…, and wish to sequentially test
the null that these binary random variables are exchangeable. Nonnegative …

Inference for batched bandits

K Zhang, L Janson, S Murphy - Advances in neural …, 2020 - proceedings.neurips.cc
As bandit algorithms are increasingly utilized in scientific studies and industrial applications,
there is an associated increasing need for reliable inference methods based on the resulting …

Fully-adaptive composition in differential privacy

J Whitehouse, A Ramdas… - … on Machine Learning, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
Composition is a key feature of differential privacy. Well-known advanced composition
theorems allow one to query a private database quadratically more times than basic privacy …

Non-asymptotic pure exploration by solving games

R Degenne, WM Koolen… - Advances in Neural …, 2019 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Pure exploration (aka active testing) is the fundamental task of sequentially gathering
information to answer a query about a stochastic environment. Good algorithms make few …

Fast pure exploration via frank-wolfe

PA Wang, RC Tzeng… - Advances in Neural …, 2021 - proceedings.neurips.cc
We study the problem of active pure exploration with fixed confidence in generic stochastic
bandit environments. The goal of the learner is to answer a query about the environment …