Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business
Uncertainty (SBU), we construct novel, forward-looking reallocation measures for jobs and …

By analyzing a comprehensive dataset of 467 crowdfunding campaigns from the Spanish
platform Goteo over the period 2019–2020, our article empirically examines the impact of …

We propose a text‐based method for measuring the cross‐border propagation of large
shocks at the firm level. We apply this method to estimate the expected costs, benefits, and …

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected
present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that US Treasury investors …

The option-implied oil price volatility is a strong negative predictor of economic growth
beyond traditional uncertainty measures. A rise in oil volatility also predicts an increase in oil …

We estimate a production‐based general equilibrium model featuring demand‐and supply‐
side uncertainty and an endogenous term premium. Using term structure and …

We identify a shock that explains the bulk of fluctuations in equity risk premia, and show that
the shock also explains a large fraction of the business-cycle comovements of output …

Labor productivity-defined as output per labor hour-has grown at a below-average rate since
2005, representing a dramatic reversal of the above-average growth of the late 1990s and …

We find that high macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of
physical capital, despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling …

Uncertainty shocks are also risk premium shocks. With countercyclical risk aversion (RA), a
positive shock to uncertainty increases risk and elevates RA as consumption growth falls …