Unknown future precipitation is the dominant source of uncertainty for many streamflow
forecasts. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be used to generate quantitative …

Ensembles used for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error
correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper proposes a statistical method for …

This paper examines the impacts of increasing horizontal resolution on the performance of
mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. A review of previous studies suggests that …

A poor man's ensemble is a set of independent numerical weather prediction (NWP) model
forecasts from several operational centers. Because it samples uncertainties in both the …

Abstract The Met Office has recently introduced a short‐range ensemble prediction system
known as MOGREPS. This system consists of global and regional ensembles, with the …

Mesoscale Dynamics | Cambridge University Press & Assessment Skip to main content Our
systems are now restored following recent technical disruption, and we’re working hard to catch …

Using Initial Condition and Model Physics Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Simulations
of Mesoscale Convective Systems in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 128 Issue 7 (2000) …

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces
probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the …

A stochastic physics scheme is tested in the Application of Research to Operations at
Mesoscale (AROME) short-range convection-permitting ensemble prediction system. It is an …

Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing
Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership in: Weather and Forecasting Volume …