The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession have
parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as …

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political
crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings …

An increasing number of emerging and develo** countries have adopted or are
transitioning towards full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) as the main monetary policy …

This speech compares and contrasts two different interpretations of the current plight of the
global economy. It argues that the world has been suffering not so much from a structural …

The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for
policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) …

Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and
employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the …

Monetary policy has been in the grip of a pincer movement, caught between growing
financial cycles, on the one hand, and an inflation process that has become quite insensitive …

A frequently neglected aspect of financial booms and busts-financial cycles-is their impact
on fiscal positions. And yet, the latest financial crisis and history show that these cycles can …

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has
slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical …

This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit
developments. Using an overlap** generations model, a normative trend level for the real …