A persistent metaphor in decision-making research casts people as intuitive statisticians.
Popular explanations based on this metaphor assume that the way in which people …

This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people's
subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of …

Human probability judgments are systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian
models of cognition. But perhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but …

Measurement literacy is required for strong scientific reasoning, effective experimental
design, conceptual and empirical validation of measurement quantities, and the intelligible …

Quick decision making under risk is ubiquitous in modern times, yet its consequences are
not fully understood. Time pressure might change people's risk preferences, lead to less …

Without strong assumptions about how noise manifests in choices, we can infer little from
existing empirical observations of the common ratio effect (CRE) about whether there exists …

A wide body of empirical research has revealed the descriptive shortcomings of expected
value and expected utility models of risky decision making. In response, numerous models …

This review organizes the vibrant recent literature on the cognitive foundations of economic
decision-making. At a basic level, this entire literature studies imperfections in cognitive …

Abstract In Bernheim and Sprenger (2020) and Bernheim, Royer, and Sprenger (2022), we
devised and implemented a new test of rank-dependent probability weighting for Cumulative …

Mathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studyingchoice
behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposedover the long …