The idea for this book came from the time the authors spent at the Statistics and Applied
Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI) in Research Triangle Park in North Carolina …

Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed:
demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical …

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and
accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot …

Population projections are key elements of many planning and policy studies but are
inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for …

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to
develop forecasts of US mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules …

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are developed for birth time
series, and their relationship with classical models for population growth is investigated …

This article deals with the forecast accuracy and bias of population projections for 2,971
counties in the United States. It uses three different projection techniques and data from …

Demographers are frequently called upon to produce population information when census
and related data are not available. Information about a present or past population is called …

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of
population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with …

The purpose of this study was to assess any associations between the number of
hospitalizations for affective disorders, seasons of the year and the intensity of sunlight in …