Statistical properties of the aftershocks of stock market crashes revisited: Analysis based on the 1987 crash, financial-crisis-2008 and COVID-19 pandemic

A Rai, A Mahata, M Nurujjaman… - International Journal of …, 2022 - World Scientific
During any unique crisis, panic sell-off leads to a massive stock market crash that may
continue for more than a day, termed as mainshock. The effect of a mainshock in the form of …

Opinion Dynamics Explain Price Formation in Prediction Markets

V Restocchi, F McGroarty, E Gerding, M Brede - Entropy, 2023 - mdpi.com
Prediction markets are heralded as powerful forecasting tools, but models that describe
them often fail to capture the full complexity of the underlying mechanisms that drive price …

A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets

AVC Carvalho, D Silveira, RA Ely… - Journal of Evolutionary …, 2023 - Springer
Abstract Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent
assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper …

It takes all sorts: The complexity of prediction markets

V Restocchi - 2018 - eprints.soton.ac.uk
Prediction markets represent a great tool to harness the wisdom of the crowd and, for this
reason, they are used to provide accurate forecasts on great variety of events. However …